We assume our own views are ‘normal’ so anyone who differs is the outsider. True in life and in poker strategy, it seems.
One of the real gifts poker has given me is that it has been a great jumping off point to learn things from other disciplines like economics, AI, psychology and Game Theory. So here is a series of articles where I bring some of the most interesting things I have learned from other subjects outside of poker which are applicable in this game we know and love.
The False Consensus Effect is a cognitive bias that tricks us into thinking our own beliefs, attitudes, and behaviours are more common than they actually are among the general population.
For instance, imagine you’re a die-hard fan of The Walking Dead, and you’re convinced that everyone you know must love it as much as you do and that it should clean up at the awards shows. You might assume that since you enjoy the show, it must be a massive hit everywhere. However, in reality, the show might be considered trash by a lot of people.
This bias often stems from our tendency to have a hard time stepping into someone else’s shoes. When we’re deeply invested in our own viewpoints, it’s challenging to comprehend that others might have vastly different perspectives. Moreover, with the rise of social media and personalized content, we’re often surrounded by information that aligns with our existing beliefs, creating a bubble where dissenting opinions are rare. As a result, we may become overly confident in the universality of our own views, reinforcing the false consensus effect without even realising it.
The bias is summed up perfectly by the George Carlin joke above.
Putting the Fish on GTO ranges
I see the False Consensus Effect all the time in poker players, even very talented ones. Most notably GTO players who struggle to understand why a recreational player deviated so far from the baseline strategy.
It’s also a common error when reviewing hands. These players will assign GTO ranges to weak players and base their decisions accordingly. In reality, a weak player’s range will be too loose, or too tight, and certainly unbalanced. Not only should you node lock when you have a read on these players, but the starting ranges should be custom built too.
I believe this is why so many conspiracy theories were made in the Robbi Jade Lew cheating scandal. It was incomprehensible, to some players, that somebody could play a hand that poorly, so the assumption was she must have been cheating. False Consensus Effect meant that good poker players could not accept that she was just completely out of her depth in that game.
What theories from outside of poker have helped your game? Let us know in the comments.
